Since the colonial days, trade has been vitally important for Southern agriculture. Historical records reveal that agricultural products accounted for 60-75% of Southern exports leading up to the American Revolution. In more recent times, USDA Economic Research Service trade data indicates that, despite recent trade challenges, agricultural exports from the Southern region have more than doubled (in nominal values) over the past 25 years and currently account for around 1/3 of agricultural cash receipts[i] (Table 1). While the Southern region has experienced significant ag trade growth over this volatile period, the Northeastern, Midwestern, and Western regions have achieved a much greater gain in ag exports (in percentage terms) since 2000. In addition, while trade dependency (measured as ag export share of ag cash receipts) has deteriorated for all regions in recent years amidst slumping U.S. ag exports and growing cash receipts, ag trade dependency in the Southern region has deteriorated relative to other U.S. regions. (Figure 1).
Table 1: Various Metrics on U.S. Ag Exports by Region (2000-2024)
| Nominal Change in the Value of Ag Exports | Real Change in the Value of Ag Exports | CompoundedAnnual Ag Export Growth Rate | Ag Exports As a % of Ag Cash Receipts | |
| South | +105.0% | +53.4% | +2.9% | 32.4% |
| Northeast | +213.9% | +134.9% | +4.7% | 27.4% |
| Midwest | +266.8% | +174.5% | +5.3% | 36.6% |
| West | +248.2% | +160.6% | +5.1% | 34.0% |
Figure 1: Agricultural Exports as a Share of Agricultural Cash Receipts by U.S. Region (2000-2024)
The reduction in Southern ag trade dependency in recent decades can partially be explained by the various trade challenges confronting several crops unique to the South like tobacco, cotton, rice, sugar, and certain fruits and vegetables. Trade data reveal that these crops have not kept pace with export gains achieved by soybeans, corn, poultry, beef, pork, dairy products, and tree nuts.
The one crop that sticks out for the Southern region in this discussion is ironically, the crop that was the dominant export commodity during colonial days – tobacco. During the early 2000s, tobacco accounted for nearly 20% of Southern ag exports, compared to less than 3% in recent years, as exports have fallen by more than 70% over the past 25 years. Consequently, tobacco producing states like Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee have experienced significant adverse impacts on their ag trade volumes and ag trade dependency relative to other Southern states where tobacco production is negligible.
In addition, many Southern crops, like tobacco, rice, sugar, tomatoes, and even ag related products like distilled spirits, face stiff competition from imports into the United States. Consequently, these trade trends have likely had a larger adverse net ag trade impact on the Southern region compared to other U.S. regions. Accordingly, commodity organizations for many of these impacted industries are currently pursuing trade policy adjustments such as tariffs and tariff rate quotas to deliver greater protection for their domestic growers.
[i] Trade data are a challenge to measure on a regional or individual state basis, depending on the individual product. For a state like Kentucky, bourbon and horses are exported directly, whereas cattle or tobacco produced in the Commonwealth are typically transported to other states for finishing/processing and possibly shipped to another state for final export out of the United States. The ERS state ag trade data base uses market share of U.S. ag cash receipts for individual states to prorate U.S. ag exports values by individual ag commodities. For a discussion of strengths and limitations of this methodology click here.