Public Information and the Variability of U.S. Cotton Production Forecasts

During April, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) announced the suspension of selected statistical reports and processes, including the annual objective yield sampling effort for U.S. cotton.  The latter was a process of field sampling of squares and bolls in major cotton producing states, from which an objective estimate of yield was calculated.  This estimate presumably informed the monthly U.S. cotton production forecasts, beginning with the August forecast, with potential to confirm or contradict the earlier (May, June, July) forecasts that are traditionally based on historical average yield and abandonment, along with subjective opinion.  It should be noted that in 2019, the start date for objective yield sampling for most of the U.S. was moved from August to September. [READ MORE]

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